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Measurements from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) form the basis of direct numerical forecast simulations of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorialFregion ionosphere. ICON data are selected and used to initialize and force the simulations and then to test the results one orbit later when the satellite revisits the same longitude. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red‐line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the simulation. Data from IVM are also used to test for irregularities (electrically polarized plasma depletions). Fourteen datasets from late March 2022, were examined. The simulations correctly predicted the occurrence or non‐occurrence of irregularities 12 times while producing one false positive and one false negative. This demonstrates that the important telltales of instability are present in the ICON state variables and that the important mechanisms for irregularity formation are captured by the simulation code. Possible refinements to the forecast strategy are discussed.

Deep convection from monsoons has been shown to be a major tropospheric source of gravity waves (GWs) in the summer hemisphere. These GWs can propagate up to the upper mesosphere, either vertically (over the same latitude) or obliquely (latitudinal propagation away from their source), where they dissipate and release their momentum. These waves play an important role in the global dynamical structure of the middle atmosphere. Understanding their hemispheric and seasonal variations could improve the GW parameterization schemes in present global models. To this end, this paper reports on a GW ray‐tracing analysis using the GROGRAT model to simulate the propagation of GWs from the monsoon regions in the northern and the southern hemispheres during both the summer and the winter seasons. The 20 simulations show the southern hemisphere to be more conducive to both the vertical and the oblique propagation of mesospheric GWs compared to the northern hemisphere, regardless of season. This is partially due to a stronger GW filtering in the northern hemisphere near the tropopause where a third of the waves have been vertically reflected. We also show that an increase in the horizontal wavelength increases not only the latitudinal component but also the longitudinal component of the oblique propagation of GWs. The broad spectrum of waves with different horizontal wavelengths and horizontal phase speeds used in this study highlights the existence of an upper limit in the horizontal wavelength of GWs that can reach the upper mesosphere.

Oblique propagation of gravity waves (GWs) refers to the latitudinal propagation (or vertical propagation away from their source) from the low‐latitude troposphere to the polar mesosphere. This propagation is not included in current gravity wave parameterization schemes, but may be an important component of the global dynamical structure. Previous studies have revealed a high correlation between observations of GW pseudomomentum flux (GWMF) from monsoon convection and Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) in the northern hemisphere. In this work, we report on data and model analysis of the effects of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in the northern hemisphere, on the oblique propagation of GWs from the southern hemisphere tropics, which in turn influence PMCs in the southern summer mesosphere. In response to SSWs, the propagation of GWs at the midlatitude winter hemisphere is enhanced. This enhancement appears to be slanted toward the equator with increasing altitude and follows the stratospheric eastward jet. The oblique propagation of GWs from the southern monsoon regions tends to start at higher altitudes with a sharper poleward slanted structure toward the summer mesosphere. The correlation between PMCs in the summer southern hemisphere and the zonal GWMF from 50°N to 50°S exhibits a pattern of high‐correlation coefficients that connects the winter stratosphere with the summer mesosphere, indicating the influence of Interhemispheric Coupling mechanism. Temperature and wind anomalies suggest that the dynamics in the winter hemisphere can influence the equatorial region, which in turn, can influence the oblique propagation of monsoon GWs.